[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Stents said:

1688851368[/url]' post='1752986']
Told you that first one was luck haha!

That ran at Nottingham earlier and finished 8th, took me ages to find it when there was no racing at Newcastle, had to type the name in the Racing Post search engine.

Trying to claw back losses isn’t responsible gambling bud, your already 10 points up still from yesterdays result (you’re 13 points ahead of me).

I like a bet as much as anyone and I try and school people into gambling responsibility, use a betting bank (safety net).

Clawing back losses is never the answer, as I started the thread I’ll take responsibility for educating people on sensible gambling as well as putting up my tips.

That’s why I’m not havin a bet tomorrow but hopefully I’ll have something decent for you by the end of the week (or earlier).

We’ll treat this thread as entertainment value, just for fun purposes.

Remember, bet responsibly (it’s even more important than winning).

Sorry for sounding like a boring old man btw, it’s the phrase ‘claw back losses’ I don’t like, it never works in the long run. You can make a decent long term profit with patience and a proper plan but some days you have to accept defeat and await the next winning day which hopefully shouldn’t be too far away.


Gamble responsibly!

[Stents]

Sorry, that was definitely the wrong term to use, and maybe in bad taste.

Wasn't necessarily chasing my loses, it was always my next bet up, just happened to come after a loss.

Not sure why I said Newcastle. Hopefully you didn't back it, especially after all that work tracking it down!

Couple I like today;

14:50 @ Deuville - Charyn 12/1
Has been running well, 2nd behind the fav when 20/1 last time out too.


15:30 @ Market Rasen - Pateen 11/1
Can't work out why I like this. Poor run out last time, don't like the jockey either. But something is drawing me in.

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Stents said:

1688895756[/url]' post='1753047']
Sorry, that was definitely the wrong term to use, and maybe in bad taste.

Wasn't necessarily chasing my loses, it was always my next bet up, just happened to come after a loss.

Not sure why I said Newcastle. Hopefully you didn't back it, especially after all that work tracking it down!

Couple I like today;

14:50 @ Deuville - Charyn 12/1
Has been running well, 2nd behind the fav when 20/1 last time out too.


15:30 @ Market Rasen - Pateen 11/1
Can't work out why I like this. Poor run out last time, don't like the jockey either. But something is drawing me in.

No worries pal. I promote responsible gambling and I don’t want the mods thinking I’m irresponsible and I try and help people who use that term, sorry for sounding like a parent, I’ve got children and I had to educate them too about the value of money and responsible gambling.



Glad I left France alone today, mine (Indestructible) ran well but came 4th it was still 33/1 this morning but I wasn’t goin near it on the soft ground knowing it was gonna be beaten.


I’d started my Newmarket shortlists for Thursday, Id analysed the opening race (Group 3/Bahrain Trophy) I’d spent over 2 hours studying the form of everything that’s been entered and the stats for the previous 12 runnings of the race and I’d got 1 left in the list (Peking Opera). I was getting really excited (currently 12/1 on b365 antepost) The stats favour this 1 massively apart from the fact it’s last run was 11 days ago at the Curragh and the break looks far too short compared to previous winners who ran at least 20 days ago usually at Ascot, Goodwood, Newmarket or Epsom so that race I’ll either leave well alone or get back to the drawing board.

Despite starting the thread I’m actually very over cautious when it comes to gambling as your probably starting to realise but I’m sure ill find something at some point and I’ll put it up here and explain the reasoning behind the bet just like I can analyse a race and explain the reasons for not having a bet.

[Stents]

Problem with landing a big one with my first entry on here, is that's its all downhill from then!

Couple more bad ones for me, but it's what you get when you're looking for value on the longer odds I suppose.


Funnily enough, I had a boring place today thanks to Sky for this.....

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[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Your still up pal, it’s only a bit of fun anyway.
Still on the hunt for some value on the big ones on Thursday, I’ve been studying in depth the July Stakes 2.25 Newmarket.

Currently have an interesting shortlist of 3 consisting of Malc 4/1, Purosange 7/1 and Watch My Tracer 8/1.

I’m currently siding with Purosange but need to keep my eye on the ground, stall number, etc.

If I have a wager on this, I’ll likely be placing it after lunch on Tuesday when they’re declared and the BOG odds are available on Coral (the only bookies available to me for early price BOG)

Gonna try and be a bit more decisive this week although 2 year old races aren’t my strong point (gettin me excuses in early too lol)

Happy Punting.

[CFC91]

I don't tend to bet much on horses outside of major festivals or the odd tip here and there but I do follow it.

Don't go as much as I used too but try and get to 4/5 meets a year though time is against me meaning i've only done Cheltenham, Thirsk and Beverley this year (the latter two are nice little market towns and well worthy of a day out.

Goodwood in a few weeks will be my first proper bet since Epsom as I was away for Ascot - which probably wasn't a bad thing given the racing results being very bookie friendly!

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

CFC91 said:

1688977602[/url]' post='1753252']
I don't tend to bet much on horses outside of major festivals or the odd tip here and there but I do follow it.

Don't go as much as I used too but try and get to 4/5 meets a year though time is against me meaning i've only done Cheltenham, Thirsk and Beverley this year (the latter two are nice little market towns and well worthy of a day out.

Goodwood in a few weeks will be my first proper bet since Epsom as I was away for Ascot - which probably wasn't a bad thing given the racing results being very bookie friendly!

Don’t get to too many festivals here unfortunately due to family, work and suchlike, a day at the races for me is usually a fun family excursion to Donny or Southwell for 1 of the minor Sunday cards, I don’t do too badly but I never have any serious bets on track.

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

CFC91 said:

1688977602[/url]' post='1753252']
I don't tend to bet much on horses outside of major festivals or the odd tip here and there but I do follow it.

Don't go as much as I used too but try and get to 4/5 meets a year though time is against me meaning i've only done Cheltenham, Thirsk and Beverley this year (the latter two are nice little market towns and well worthy of a day out.

Goodwood in a few weeks will be my first proper bet since Epsom as I was away for Ascot - which probably wasn't a bad thing given the racing results being very bookie friendly!

Don’t get me started on Royal Ascot, some of them results, 150/1, 80/1, the bookies came out on top that week, roll on the jumps season that’s what I say.

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Managed to whittle down a 9 runner field to a shortlist of 3 runners for the first Irish group race of the week, the Brownstown Stakes at Fairyhouse Wednesday, looks to be an interesting competitive race but I’m leaving it well alone as I’m not convinced about any of these 3 due to various reasons mainly the stall numbers of the latter 2 and Cigamias got a bit of extra weight to carry (joint top weight) due to being a 4 year old and I’m not convinced that stall 1 will suit this filly.

I’m left with Cigamia, Zarinsk and American Sonja, I’ll watch them run but no betting interest at all for me, midweek Irish group races are quite dodgy affairs at the best of times and my senses are telling me to leave this 1 we’ll alone.

Most winners of this race come out of stalls 1-4, I don’t have any prices yet but I’m gonna avoid it and try n find a bet for Thursday.

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Whittled down the entries (all 22 of em) of the Bet 365 Sprint Handicap to 6. (Thursday 3.00 Newmarket)

I’ll leave this 1 for now until the final declarations are ready but the 6 interesting me the most so far on my preliminary shortlist are:

Eminence, Tough Enough, Animate, Another Baah, Ferrous and Quintus Arrius but I do need to look at this race more closely as it looks like there’s maybe some potential for a nice value e/w wager, prices currently varying between 8’s and 25’s on my shortlist.

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

I’ve put the Group 2 Princess of Wales Stakes 3.35 Newmarket (Thursday) under close scrutiny. Very interesting race that and It wouldn’t surprise me if the odds on fave Adayar gets turned over.
My problem is I keep wiping the whole field out on my shortlist and the closest I’ve come to a potential upset is stablemate Global Storm, not sure I’m happy about that 1 or even want a wager on this contest but the favourite is there for the taking, I’ll look at this one tomorrow.
Also I quickly stat profiled the field for an interesting group 3 race at York (2.40 Summer Stakes) on Friday and wiped out the whole list on that 1 too.
Hopefully this all gets a bit easier when the final declarations get announced but it looks like it could be a really tough week, gotta have my wits about me if I’m gonna take anything off those pesky bookies this week.

[Stents]

One I fancy for today is a funny one...

14:30 @ Wolves - Wadacre Gomez

Hasn't been running all that well, but it's a new course for him and a jockey who knows how to win there. I'm putting his previous bad runs down to not liking the course etc, but there is always a chance that he's just not very good...

As always, we're hunting for a place, but at 14/1 it'll still be a nice return if it does.

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Good luck pal.
I’ve been getting my teeth into Thursday evenings Stanerra Stakes group 3 at Leopardstown before I get stuck into Newmarket.
Shortlisted 2 Aidan O Brian Runners
Lambada and Library
Not sure I want a bet on this (jockeys yet to be named on either)
Lambada yet to win on good ground stall 1?
Library, stall 5, listed winner goes on the ground.
No prices yet, take your pick (or you might fancy another 1)

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Wiped the entire field out again so no shortlist left for the Bahrain Trophy, so leaving that 1 alone (1.50 Newmarket)
Good luck to any1 having a pop at that tricky little race.

[Nassau_board]

In terms of Newmarket it has one of the largest pace bias’ in UK racing so it’s often best to follow pace angles who have course form.

I’ve been too busy looking at todays racing where we have Brighton (course form often invaluable) and Pontefract (draw bias but can flip due to going)

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Nassau_board said:

1689075474[/url]' post='1753642']
In terms of Newmarket it has one of the largest pace bias' in UK racing so it's often best to follow pace angles who have course form.

I've been too busy looking at todays racing where we have Brighton (course form often invaluable) and Pontefract (draw bias but can flip due to going)

Finally we got a proper expert on the thread instead of me tryin to blag it lol.
Pace angles now ya talkin son, gimme some draw bias as well, preferably for Newmarket, I only usually bother with high end racing, can get more stats and trends for them ones.

I’ve got Purosange and Malc left in the shortlist for the 2.25 (July Stakes) priced 9/4 and 4/1 respectively.
Preference is for Malc and looks the best value out of the 2, got the best draw out of the 2 and looks the value wager, not stuck anything on it yet, waiting for the Coral bog prices to become available, both of em go on the ground both impressed lto , the Balding runner in a Haydock novice won really well and the trainer knows how to win this race but Malc ran really well at Ascot lto in the Norfolk Stakes.outrunning a huge price to finish 2nd. Stats tell me these are both gonna run well but don’t like the favourite being in stall 9 and the current 9/4 price is too skinny.
2 year old races aren’t my strong point btw, I’m only looking at it because it’s a group race.
AOBs got a runner in this but I took it off the shortlist or do you fancy another 1?

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

3/1 Malc on Coral bog, probably leavin this 1 alone, hoped for a bigger price.
I’m in the right direction though, stat profiled the 2 market leaders from the opening declarations out of quite a few runners, reckon I’d be better off bein a bookie than a punter.
Saying all that Purosange must have been backed, it was 7/1 on the antepost so someone’s been backing it. Watched a re run of the colts debut at Haydock (yeh I know) and looked impressive.
This race hasn’t had a winner who’s only ran once since 2014, I think this one might drift back out at some point (11/4 now) and I wouldn’t be happy backing it at that price from stall 9.

[Stents]

Stents, on 11 July 2023 - 08:16 AM, said:

One I fancy for today is a funny one...

14:30 @ Wolves - Wadacre Gomez

Hasn't been running all that well, but it's a new course for him and a jockey who knows how to win there. I'm putting his previous bad runs down to not liking the course etc, but there is always a chance that he's just not very good...

As always, we're hunting for a place, but at 14/1 it'll still be a nice return if it does.

Anybody watching know what's happened here?

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Stents said:

1689082811[/url]' post='1753689']
Anybody watching know what's happened here?

Race voided pal, all bets are off, result non runner
Determined to find a bet for Thursday.
Gonna get a value bet if it B****Y kills me
Shortlist for the 3.00 bet 365 heritage handicap
Frankness, Ferrous, Dark Thirty are in the shortlist, might have finally found a bit of value hopefully 🤞

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

First bet of the week just placed.
I had a pop at Ferrous 22/1 e/w on Coral paying 4 places, stables in form, ran well in handicap company this season, goes on the ground, stall 7 hopefully shouldn’t be an issue and the claimer takes 3lbs off. No concerns backing 1 with a claiming jockey in this race either, the trainers dad (Mick Channon) was the last trainer to win this race with a claiming jockey back in 2014, so it runs in the family don’t know if that’s a good omen or not but it’s too late now, I’ve backed it anyway. I’ll be delighted if the colt places.
🤞