[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Hey Fellow Town Fans:

I can’t find a horse racing topic on here so thought I’d start 1 with the mod’s permission. I didn’t want to add stuff to the betting thread because that focuses mainly on football and didn’t want to spoil that 1 so thought I’d try and start my own on here just for a bit of fun.

I have a sit down job (mainly) with internet access so I’m fortunate enough to be able to spend a lot of time at work stat profiling thoroughbreds building a tracker and looking deeply into some of the biggest group/graded races in Britain, Ireland and some of the biggest group 1 contests in the world.

I like to get my bets on a couple of days before the race (when the runners are declared), small bets, just a bit of fun. I’ve been making shortlists all week when I’ve not been at work or watching town and I’m still busy looking at Saturday afternoon’s excitement at Haydock and Sandown.

I’ll start with a couple of small bets I’ve got lined up in the 2.40 Haydock (Group 2 Lancashire Oaks) I came up with 2 really well drawn fillies
Sea Silk Road (currently 9/2) and Peripatetic (currently 14/1). There’s a possible forecast here or even a tricast if I include the favourite Mimikyu currently 6/4 although I see no value in the favourite at that price. I’ve gone for a small wager on both my selections, the former to win at 9/2 and the latter to get into the places at 14/1 (paying 3 places).

Does anybody else have any wagers (just for fun purposes)? I know we used to have a few turf experts (a lot better than me) on here years ago who had a few nice results at the Cheltenham Festival (I prefer National Hunt racing) who want to add their thoughts/selections/etc? It doesn’t matter if they lose, I only bet a few pence anyway.

It’s totally fine if they’re in the same race as my selections (you can even tell me mine are crap, I don't mind) , it’s just a bit of pre season fun for me really until the football season starts. If anybody has any more that I like I might be able to get a decent accumulator going on make some money outa you lot.

Thanks for reading and happy punting.

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Another bet to add for Saturday from Haydock in the 3.15 Old Newton Cup Handicap is Nolton Cross, not brilliantly drawn in stall 17, yet to win on turf but finished 3rd in class 2 handicap company last time, I got 16/1 e/w, paying 5 places and this looks really good value for a gelding that looks really well handicapped who’s gonna win on the turf at some point he’s had success on the all weather and jockey Neil Callan rides the course and the distance really well.

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

I’m gonna leave the Coral Eclipse (3.40 Sandown) alone. It’s between the filly Emily Upjohn and the colt Paddington, both very short prices, currently 5/4 and 11/10 respectively. I don’t go near short prices in 4 runner fields as there’s very little value.
Trainer Aidan O Brien originally entered Luxembourg in this, it was 20/1 earlier in the week and the stats told me this colt had an excellent chance, very disappointed the trainer didn’t have a crack at this prize with the aforementioned colt. I’ll just be enjoying this race as a spectator and making my own notes on it.

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Cheers to the mods for letting me put the thread up and not putting my posts on a time delay, it means members can get the prices earlier.
Anybody who follows my racing tips will soon realise that the prices I get on Thursdays and Fridays mainly evaporate by Saturday afternoons, I like to get in nice and early to get the best value.

[Stents]

Can't turn down a 12/1 & a 16/1. Had a little bit on them to see how they do.

Had Manor Park @ 12's in the 15:50 at Newton Abbot for a few different reasons, but saying that it'll probably run like a donkey now I've mentioned it.

[Westbars Spireite]

I try and steer well clear of betting on horses!

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Stents said:

1688725315[/url]' post='1752580']
Can't turn down a 12/1 & a 16/1. Had a little bit on them to see how they do.

Had Manor Park @ 12's in the 15:50 at Newton Abbot for a few different reasons, but saying that it'll probably run like a donkey now I've mentioned it.

Good luck pal, hoping I’ve got off to a positive start. My bets are 1 point win and 0.5 point e/w btw.

I’ve been averaging between 150 and 200 points profit a year over the last few years.

Currently trying to whittle down some shortlists at Sandown and also having a close look at the Group races taking place across the channel this weekend.

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Westbars Spireite said:

1688725801[/url]' post='1752584']
I try and steer well clear of betting on horses!

Morning Westy, you used to enjoy a wager on Cheltenham festival, I prefer the jumps myself son.

I can look closely at around 30 - 40 races a week (if time allows) and chances are I might only make 4 or 5 bets a week, sometimes more or even less depending on the quality.

But I’m 1 of those guys who takes an interest in the sport and certain races and can enjoy it without even having a bet, eg Coral Eclipse tomorrow, I’ll watch it but got no interest from a betting angle.

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Stents said:

1688725315[/url]' post='1752580']
Can't turn down a 12/1 & a 16/1. Had a little bit on them to see how they do.

Had Manor Park @ 12's in the 15:50 at Newton Abbot for a few different reasons, but saying that it'll probably run like a donkey now I've mentioned it.

Very nicely tipped pal, I didn’t back it (wish I had now) I was too busy getting a headache going through my shortlist for the Coral Distaff, but just checked the result and celebrated for you, sp 10/1, very impressive that was.

I don’t usually bother with the summer jumpers apart from the big ones at Market Rasen. I know a few SJ specialists (I can see you’re one) who do do nicely.

This thread couldn’t have got off to a better start thanks to you, many thanks.

Double price winner on day 1, if a tipping contest went on here, I’m making you favourite, in fact you can boss this thread, no arguments from me. I’m handing you the reigns, you’ve earned it son, mine are gonna fall out the back of the telly now, I know it, that was splendid.

👏 👏 👏

[Stents]

Don't expect it to be a common theme. In fact, if anything, avoid my next few as they're almost guaranteed to be losers!

Happy with it though, was expecting a place more so than anything else.

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Stents said:

1688750662[/url]"]1688750662[/url]' post='[url="tel:[url="tel:1752704"]1752704[/url]"]1752704[/url]']Don't expect it to be a common theme. In fact, if anything, avoid my next few as they're almost guaranteed to be losers! Happy with it though, was expecting a place more so than anything else.

12/1 winner on day 1 with 1 bet placed, you're being modest kid, in a class 3 handicap hurdle, with an overexposed horse that's had 50 previous runs and has been running in low quality a/w and flat handicaps this year and you pick that out. You haven't stuck a pin in a newspaper to find it that's for sure, I know when I'm bein hustled youth lol.I looked at the form and wouldn't have been tempted by the 7lbs claimer even on a c+d winner. There was no form there whatsoever. The claimer had won 6 previous hurdles and they were all for Ben Pauling and you pop up with that 1, I'm guessin you had inside info. I'm not knocking it bud. I never bet on anything lower than class 2 races. Ive not had any more bets yet but I've been looking at the 2 Group 1 races in France over the weekend. I think I've got the winner for the Grand Prix Des Saint Cloud (Westover) should win Saturday but odds on, not backing it at the current 8/13, the German horse Tunnes looks interesting though on the stats for a big price but German Breds don't do too well in that race plus there's only 5 runners so wouldn't want to risk an e/w wager. I've also shortlisted Indestructible and Meditate for the Prix Jean Pat in Deauville on Sunday but I'll look at that 1 again when there's some prices available, I'd like em big enough for a couple of e/w bets but I'm not getting me hopes up and tomorrows shortlists are giving me a headache. I've got 2 or 3 shortlisted for all the races but every time I look at em the prices keep dropping so probably not gonna bother. That's what always puts me off having a bet on Fridays or Saturdays for the Saturday afternoons because I can always remember what the prices were on Thursday and the ones I've actually backed look like they're drifting, typical, the frustration of racing innit lol

This post has been edited by Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil: 07 July 2023 - 08:31 PM

[Stents]

Honestly mate, you've just told me more there than I knew about it... Horse had a decent course record, and both jockey and trainer had a few recent winners.

Maybe I picked it for the wrong reasons. I just thought it had a shot at a place.

Here's my first loser for you, few of these and you'll soon realise.

Back See Daa 15:00 @ Sandown 8/1 E/W bet.

Again, like the look of the trainer, who's in good form. Fancy it for a place

[Stents]

I've backed the favourite in the same race, purely because of its name (my name)

That's about my level

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Stents said:

1688764552[/url]' post='1752765']
Honestly mate, you've just told me more there than I knew about it... Horse had a decent course record, and both jockey and trainer had a few recent winners.

Maybe I picked it for the wrong reasons. I just thought it had a shot at a place.

Here's my first loser for you, few of these and you'll soon realise.

Back See Daa 15:00 @ Sandown 8/1 E/W bet.

Again, like the look of the trainer, who's in good form. Fancy it for a place

I didn’t know much about it, I just looked at some of his previous form, you went with an in form stable and jockey, that’s a starting point.
I won’t have any more tomorrow, there’s some decent quality racing at Newmarket and a couple of Irish group races later on in the week, I’ll save the rest of my energy to look at those, unless the prices on Sundays French race look good value.
I’ll leave a few of my shortlisted runners for tomorrow for you to look at but I’m not tipping any of these because I don’t have that much confidence in them but they’ll possibly run well.

Sandown 2.25, Perotto, Positive, Silent Film, Perottos currently 7/1 but it was double figures yesterday and I hate when that happens because that’s when I should have placed it, I’m leaving that race alone now.

Sandown 3.00 Black Sea Daah remains in my shortlist along with 5 others, so I wont bother with that and I’ve got 5 shortlisted in the
first race TV race at Haydock so I’ll keep my powder dry for now.

I’d also got Tiber Flow in my shortlist for the 1.50 and that’s shrunk from 12/1 to 6/1 so I should’ve got in early there too nevermind, it’s weight was putting me off and if I backed in then Lady Hamana or Get Ahead will probably win which were also shortlisted.

It looked a far better betting day on paper than it did before I started analysing it, I won’t even look at tomorrows cards again now. Tomorrow evening I’ll start on my Thursday Newmarket and Irish shortlists so I don’t miss the early prices. Just watch Perotto romp home now in the 2.25 now I’m not betting on it.

Stay lucky kid.

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Stents said:

1688764552[/url]' post='1752765']
Honestly mate, you've just told me more there than I knew about it... Horse had a decent course record, and both jockey and trainer had a few recent winners.

Maybe I picked it for the wrong reasons. I just thought it had a shot at a place.

Here's my first loser for you, few of these and you'll soon realise.

Back See Daa 15:00 @ Sandown 8/1 E/W bet.

Again, like the look of the trainer, who's in good form. Fancy it for a place

Ended up having a lucky 63 e/w just for a bit of Saturday afternoon fun, I went with Tiber Flow, Perotto, Black Sea Daa (shortened to 11/2 now) Struth, Peripatetic and Nolton Cross (now 33/1 eek)

🤞 🐎 💵 happy punting

[Mr Mercury]

Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil, on 08 July 2023 - 10:52 AM, said:

Ended up having a lucky 63 e/w just for a bit of Saturday afternoon fun, I went with Tiber Flow, Perotto, Black Sea Daa (shortened to 11/2 now) Struth, Peripatetic and Nolton Cross (now 33/1 eek)

🤞 🐎 💵 happy punting

Black Sea daa now 5/1..
Boosted it at WH to 5.8/1 £5 here
Then gone a tenner on Get Ahead 5/1..13.50 Sandown, money back if 2/3rd

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Mr Mercury said:

1688815558[/url]' post='1752856']
Black Sea daa now 5/1..
Boosted it at WH to 5.8/1 £5 here
Then gone a tenner on Get Ahead 5/1..13.50 Sandown, money back if 2/3rd

It was 10s on Thursday that 1 M, I lost most of them prices by not being quick enough. I was put off it originally because the filly’s only ran in novices and I’d got 4 others in my shortlist but people are backing it including Stents so I stuck it in my Lucky 63, hope we’ve not put the mockers on it lol

[Manfred Archie Mac Gerbil]

Frustrating day here for the tipsters; 2.40 Silk Sea Road losing by a neck 7/4sp shortened from its opening price 9/2 which I got, the jockey should have held onto the filly for a few moments longer imo, Peripetetic was running well then faded in the same race then at 3.15 the selection took a whack mid race, still managed 6th place from a bad draw narrowly missing out on the place money (5 places) sp 18/1, it went out to 33s at 1 point although that’s irrelevant lol.

Lucky 63, first 2 placed, then the 3rd Perotto won (what did I tell ya) 5/1sp so should have backed it on Thursday when it was 12s and then it was all downhill from there, final 3 did very little but ran ok.

Gonna leave tomorrows Prix Jean Pat well alone, soft grounds a massive concern for my shortlisted horses so that’s a no bet day for me and the next race I’ll be analysing will be Wednesdays group 3 contest from Fairyhouse which looks interesting and then onto a long weekend of (hopefully) quality racing at Newmarket on Thursday.

Happy Punting.

[Stents]

20:12 at Newcastle - Mickey Mongoose

Trying to claw back the earlier loss, but it's probably another loser

This post has been edited by Stents: 08 July 2023 - 06:25 PM

[Stents]

Told you that first one was luck haha!