[HistoricWarwick]

Bonny et al, has anyone had a smurf at the National Weights and spotted anything they like the look of?

Looks interesting this year as there are lots of angles and with Shutthefrontdoor likely to start at about 4/1 if McCoy is still riding, there might be some value on the day rather than ante post.

Personally, I like the look of Spring Heeled and Soll who although out with the washing at number 69 is really interesting, especially if he doesn't rock up at Cheltenham.

Any thoughts?

[Comeonyouirons]

HistoricWarwick, on 25 February 2015 - 08:45 AM, said:

Bonny et al, has anyone had a smurf at the National Weights and spotted anything they like the look of?

Looks interesting this year as there are lots of angles and with Shutthefrontdoor likely to start at about 4/1 if McCoy is still riding, there might be some value on the day rather than ante post.

Personally, I like the look of Spring Heeled and Soll who although out with the washing at number 69 is really interesting, especially if he doesn't rock up at Cheltenham.

Any thoughts?

Chance Du Roy

[Bonnyman]

HistoricWarwick, on 25 February 2015 - 08:45 AM, said:

Bonny et al, has anyone had a smurf at the National Weights and spotted anything they like the look of?

Looks interesting this year as there are lots of angles and with Shutthefrontdoor likely to start at about 4/1 if McCoy is still riding, there might be some value on the day rather than ante post.

Personally, I like the look of Spring Heeled and Soll who although out with the washing at number 69 is really interesting, especially if he doesn't rock up at Cheltenham.

Any thoughts?

First horse i picked out was soll, gone to pipe from jo hughes, if its the horse im thinking of its massive a right beast i think it may have been a mullins horse once, hosed in first time out.Another well in horse is trustan times big form in big races , rated 150 plus over hurdles off a mark of 138 in chases beaten holywell in a hurdle off levels , 4th in a festival hdcap 3rd in the scottish national.

Forget trustan times its not entered..still well hdcaped though

This post has been edited by Erwan dsihounou: 25 February 2015 - 03:33 PM

[Comeonyouirons]

Erwan dsihounou, on 25 February 2015 - 03:15 PM, said:

First horse i picked out was soll, gone to pipe from jo hughes, if its the horse im thinking of its massive a right beast i think it may have been a mullins horse once, hosed in first time out.Another well in horse is trustan times big form in big races , rated 150 plus over hurdles off a mark of 138 in chases beaten holywell in a hurdle off levels , 4th in a festival hdcap 3rd in the scottish national.

Forget trustan times its not entered..still well hdcaped though

pity ...I'd personally love Tim Easterby to win this race

[HistoricWarwick]

Erwan dsihounou, on 25 February 2015 - 03:15 PM, said:

First horse i picked out was soll, gone to pipe from jo hughes, if its the horse im thinking of its massive a right beast i think it may have been a mullins horse once, hosed in first time out.Another well in horse is trustan times big form in big races , rated 150 plus over hurdles off a mark of 138 in chases beaten holywell in a hurdle off levels , 4th in a festival hdcap 3rd in the scottish national.

Forget trustan times its not entered..still well hdcaped though

Not sure Soll will get in but from what I can read into its form:
- best when fresh as it has won twice after a 60 day break. However Pipe's as is their want have it entered at Newbury on Sat and in the Cathcart.
- finished 7th in Aurora's Encore national which as you will recall was fastish ground. Soll likes mud.
- got round a Topham when hampered.
- running off 2lb less than its last national run
- Pipe trained. Unlike Pumpkin head who always runs 4-5 in the race and Henderson who seems to have forgotten how to train chasers or is too afraid to run them on anything softer than good, Pipe is due a big win. They are slowly starting to fill their stable with quality rather than quantity and his record in distance chases is peerless.

Spring Heeled I like because I backed it as the Festival last year and I think it is a Spring horse.

Looking at the Festival, have you seen that of the 27 races, Mullins, Nicholls, Henderson and Pipe have 20 favourites between them....

[HistoricWarwick]

Comeonyouirons, on 25 February 2015 - 10:30 AM, said:

Chance Du Roy

I can see the logic of that. For a place that is a good bet.

[HistoricWarwick]

soll into 25s after winning today.

[Bonnyman]

HistoricWarwick, on 28 February 2015 - 04:26 PM, said:

soll into 25s after winning today.

plenty of real chances and will look to finalise my selection after backing pineau de rei last year , one that should run well is godsmejudge it has won abd finished 2nd in the scottish national finished 3rd in the whitbread ( or whatever its called now) and runs off a mark of 143 which is less than the start of the season i wonder whether ig has the tactical speed to win a national as its a grinder but it should run well.

[HistoricWarwick]

Erwan dsihounou, on 15 March 2015 - 09:11 AM, said:

plenty of real chances and will look to finalise my selection after backing pineau de rei last year , one that should run well is godsmejudge it has won abd finished 2nd in the scottish national finished 3rd in the whitbread ( or whatever its called now) and runs off a mark of 143 which is less than the start of the season i wonder whether ig has the tactical speed to win a national as its a grinder but it should run well.

When are the next decs?

On another note I saw that Vroum Vroum a Mag win earlier. Outstanding jumper and another beast for the Mullins/Ricci/Walsh triumvirate.

I think it will go to Punchestown - have a look.

[Bonnyman]

Comeonyouirons, on 25 February 2015 - 10:30 AM, said:

Chance Du Roy

I have just looked up chance du roy and it goes well and truely into my investments for the national..last year it finished 6th off 10st 6 btn 19 l, im not a fan of horses who finish down the field but chance du roy is an exception..this year it has 10st 4 but it got mullered last year the jockey must have come back and told the trainer lay it out for next year.After 3 fences it nearly falls causing it to lose its place tracking pineau de rei then at valentines it gets stopped dead in total carnage it must lose 20 lengths on the outside amazingly it gets into the race at the melling road and is still in contention at the last its an amazing run and the horse loves aintree..big big chance at 40/1

[Bonnyman]

Erwan dsihounou, on 16 March 2015 - 01:44 PM, said:

I have just looked up chance du roy and it goes well and truely into my investments for the national..last year it finished 6th off 10st 6 btn 19 l, im not a fan of horses who finish down the field but chance du roy is an exception..this year it has 10st 4 but it got mullered last year the jockey must have come back and told the trainer lay it out for next year.After 3 fences it nearly falls causing it to lose its place tracking pineau de rei then at valentines it gets stopped dead in total carnage it must lose 20 lengths on the outside amazingly it gets into the race at the melling road and is still in contention at the last its an amazing run and the horse loves aintree..big big chance at 40/1

Just thought the thread needed a stat to liven it back up..i have narrowed it down to three

chance du roy
godsmejudge
soll

The latter looks like it might miss out it is no 49 on the decs so needs a miracle , if it does get in it could be a big gamble

The stat though is for chance du roy , im all over this big outsider, last time it ran 5th behind soll at exeter

The 4th in that race







creevytennant won on the bridle at ascot by half the track next time out

the 3rd won next time out

the 2nd won next time out
the winner won next time out

the form is absolutely rock solid

its the best 40/1 chance you will ever get win or lose.

[Comeonyouirons]

Just 3 words

Chance Du Roy

[HistoricWarwick]

So far very few horses have been suggested that don't stack up.

Personally I cannot see Chance Du Roy winning but I can see it placed.

I am also a Soll fan but like you say, it needs a few to come out but, it is technically number 45 as those with level weights are readjusted by Phil Smith and as a last time out winner, it gets in at 45. Also Nicholls has Sam Winner and Benvolio to come out so that makes it number 43. Plus your last minute injuries I make it highly probable it gets in.

I have gone off Spring Heeled now, the stable are having a stinker. So the other one interesting me is Al Co which I will back e/w with Soll although both will be backed a week before.

[Bonnyman]

HistoricWarwick, on 30 March 2015 - 04:40 PM, said:

So far very few horses have been suggested that don't stack up.

Personally I cannot see Chance Du Roy winning but I can see it placed.

I am also a Soll fan but like you say, it needs a few to come out but, it is technically number 45 as those with level weights are readjusted by Phil Smith and as a last time out winner, it gets in at 45. Also Nicholls has Sam Winner and Benvolio to come out so that makes it number 43. Plus your last minute injuries I make it highly probable it gets in.

I have gone off Spring Heeled now, the stable are having a stinker. So the other one interesting me is Al Co which I will back e/w with Soll although both will be backed a week before.

Watch its 2014 run warwick its incredible it finished so close it had a nightmare..everything that could go wrong did im sure tom o brien came back and said get me on next year he has mot left its back since.

[Comeonyouirons]

Comeonyouirons, on 30 March 2015 - 04:08 PM, said:

Just 3 words

Chance Du Roy

I hadn't read ED's support of Chance Du Roy before I posted this yesterday . There is a certain sense of relief that other people have the same opinion ( horse racing wise )

I have had the 40/1 and ( may well ) have some more

There is another horse I will back , simply because Ive nearly bought it over the last few years and for it to win without me backing it would seriously do my head in and that is

Merry King ...Swinging on the bridle 2 out in Hennessy I honestly think Jonjo O'Neill has always had this race in mind

This post has been edited by Comeonyouirons: 31 March 2015 - 09:14 AM

[Bonnyman]

Comeonyouirons, on 31 March 2015 - 09:12 AM, said:

I hadn't read ED's support of Chance Du Roy before I posted this yesterday . There is a certain sense of relief that other people have the same opinion ( horse racing wise )

I have had the 40/1 and ( may well ) have some more

There is another horse I will back , simply because Ive nearly bought it over the last few years and for it to win without me backing it would seriously do my head in and that is

Merry King ...Swinging on the bridle 2 out in Hennessy I honestly think Jonjo O'Neill has always had this race in mind

Merry king is out of the national

[Ernie Ernie Ernie]

HistoricWarwick, on 25 February 2015 - 08:45 AM, said:

Bonny et al, has anyone had a smurf at the National Weights and spotted anything they like the look of?

Looks interesting this year as there are lots of angles and with Shutthefrontdoor likely to start at about 4/1 if McCoy is still riding, there might be some value on the day rather than ante post.

Personally, I like the look of Spring Heeled and Soll who although out with the washing at number 69 is really interesting, especially if he doesn't rock up at Cheltenham.

Any thoughts?

When I saw the thread I thought it was going to be a thread about folk up north being fatter.

Would shutthefrontdoor be anywhere as low as it is, if McCoy wasn't on it? Doesn't represent any kind of value at those odds

[Bonnyman]

Ernie Ernie Ernie, on 31 March 2015 - 07:49 PM, said:

When I saw the thread I thought it was going to be a thread about folk up north being fatter.

Would shutthefrontdoor be anywhere as low as it is, if McCoy wasn't on it? Doesn't represent any kind of value at those odds

Terrible price but wont get bigger...big negative is it wears headgear ( cheekpieces) only 1 horse out of 156 i can find have run well in them ..comply or die who won ..horses run better without headgear they need to see everything at aintree

[Comeonyouirons]

Erwan dsihounou, on 31 March 2015 - 07:46 PM, said:

Merry king is out of the national

Oh .... In which case I wont dabble

[Stents]

Chance du Roy is still up at 40's

Soll's now at 16's. Had to stick a bit on this before it dropped even lower