[gordon_brittas]

This club is an ongoing unfunny joke.

[Zytok]

hilly81, on 14 February 2017 - 12:03 PM, said:

Oh, we're down! We need to win 50% of our remaining games. Our current win % stands at 23%. No chance we are turning that round.

I never quite get this 50 points thing. It might very well be an average of what's required but this season, there are quite a few seriously poor sides in the division and as things stand, we need a point more than 4 other teams which looking at the table is hardly impossible. I'm as disappointed as anyone at the season so far and the lack of a new manager bounce but we do still in theory have a reasonable chance though not being able to attack or defend isn't going to help much.

[Zytok]

If only we were a big club with big crowds that could afford decent wages to attract decent players, you know like Scunny, Fleetwood, Rochdale and Southend.

[Sammy Spireite]

Zytok, on 14 February 2017 - 12:40 PM, said:

I never quite get this 50 points thing. It might very well be an average of what's required but this season, there are quite a few seriously poor sides in the division and as things stand, we need a point more than 4 other teams which looking at the table is hardly impossible. I'm as disappointed as anyone at the season so far and the lack of a new manager bounce but we do still in theory have a reasonable chance though not being able to attack or defend isn't going to help much.

but you understand we need to win around 50% of our games between now and the end of the season, which not only is it Championship winning form, its a monumental world away from our current.

I like to think I'm as positive and optimistic as the next man, but we're down.

edit: looking at our remaining games, its hard to see were we'll pick up another 2 or 3 wins, never mind 7/8!

Gillingham A
Bury H
Millwall A
Oxford United H
Walsall A
Swindon Town A
Shrewsbury Town H
Peterborough United H
Bristol Rovers A
Rochdale H
Bolton Wanderers A
Port Vale H
Southend United H
Scunthorpe United A
Charlton Athletic H
Sheffield United A

This post has been edited by Sammy Spireite: 14 February 2017 - 01:00 PM

[hilly81]

Zytok, on 14 February 2017 - 12:40 PM, said:

I never quite get this 50 points thing. It might very well be an average of what's required but this season, there are quite a few seriously poor sides in the division and as things stand, we need a point more than 4 other teams which looking at the table is hardly impossible. I'm as disappointed as anyone at the season so far and the lack of a new manager bounce but we do still in theory have a reasonable chance though not being able to attack or defend isn't going to help much.

47, 48, 49, 50, whatever. We wont get near that total on current form. We don't score goals.

[gordon_brittas]

If only we were a big club with big crowds that could afford decent wages to attract decent players, you know like Scunny, Fleetwood, Rochdale and Southend.

Wait till next season when we can't compete with the big clubs such as Barnet and Accrington.

[Zytok]

No, I'm saying we don't necessarily need to win 50% of our remaining games or even 33%. We need one more point than 4 other teams. We could stay up on 35 points (not worked out exact head to heads etc) as long as Bury, Swindon, Coventry, Oldham, Vale and/or Gillingham all keep losing too. It's grasping at straws I know and in all likelihood we are "down already" but it's not correct to say we need to win 50% of our games unless you mean that winning 50% would mathematically guarantee such a claim.

[Spireite-Karl]

quote name='gordon_brittas' timestamp='1487077097' post='1279820']
If only we were a big club with big crowds that could afford decent wages to attract decent players, you know like Scunny, Fleetwood, Rochdale and Southend.

Wait till next season when we can't compete with the big clubs such as Barnet and Accrington.
[/quote]



I can't wait to hear the excuses for that 😉

This post has been edited by Spireite-Karl: 14 February 2017 - 01:05 PM

[Paul Fisher]

Zytok, on 14 February 2017 - 01:00 PM, said:

No, I'm saying we don't necessarily need to win 50% of our remaining games or even 33%. We need one more point than 4 other teams. We could stay up on 35 points (not worked out exact head to heads etc) as long as Bury, Swindon, Coventry, Oldham, Vale and/or Gillingham all keep losing too. It's grasping at straws I know and in all likelihood we are "down already" but it's not correct to say we need to win 50% of our games unless you mean that winning 50% would mathematically guarantee such a claim.

35 points??? What season was the last team to stop up on 35 points?

50% of winning the matches only gives you a CHANCE of staying up..it may be more it may be slightly less but only slightly.

[Zytok]

yeah it'll be magic next season when we're playing Lincoln and Forest Green Rovers and Mansfield are playing Blackburn, QPR and Wigan.

[Zytok]

It doesn't matter when the last season was that 35 was enough (and I'm not saying it will be). I'm sorry to go on but saying we need to win 50% of our remaining games to have any chance of staying up is an exaggeration. This implies that all the other strugglers I mentioned will go on some kind of miracle run too and win 50%+ of their remaining games which is never gonna happen.

[antony hawkins]

gordon_brittas, on 14 February 2017 - 12:58 PM, said:

If only we were a big club with big crowds that could afford decent wages to attract decent players, you know like Scunny, Fleetwood, Rochdale and Southend.

Wait till next season when we can't compete with the big clubs such as Barnet and Accrington.

Well that's already happened this season, Gary Taylor Fletcher ?

[sophocles]

Zytok, on 14 February 2017 - 01:00 PM, said:

No, I'm saying we don't necessarily need to win 50% of our remaining games or even 33%. We need one more point than 4 other teams. We could stay up on 35 points (not worked out exact head to heads etc) as long as Bury, Swindon, Coventry, Oldham, Vale and/or Gillingham all keep losing too. It's grasping at straws I know and in all likelihood we are "down already" but it's not correct to say we need to win 50% of our games unless you mean that winning 50% would mathematically guarantee such a claim.

You are right, of course, and I'm with your positive outlook because being negative is pointless (no pun on our performances intended). The thing that does bother me greatly though, is the utter shambles that is the management of our club. The Sam Hird debacle just adds to my suspicion that Caldwell has already explicitly agreed with the Board that we will go down and try, somehow, to rebuild from L2. I am never a manager critic, even when they have had plenty of time, but I am beginning to lose faith in GC already; what sensible manager would come out with the phrase 'I picked a team I thought could win the game', after the Northampton shambles? More worryingly, what sensible manager would agree to leave out the team's best player just when he was most needed? Of course the Hird situation is shrouded in mystery and confusion, like everything else at CFC, but experience shows that we should fear the worst, because that is what usually comes to pass.

[Zytok]

Oh don't get me wrong, I'm as depressed as the next supporter at the state of the club over the last 12-18 months. My ASD/OCD can't get over hyperbole though so I felt a correction in order

This post has been edited by Zytok: 14 February 2017 - 01:23 PM

[danblue]

hilly81, on 14 February 2017 - 12:54 PM, said:

47, 48, 49, 50, whatever. We wont get near that total on current form. We don't score goals.

and cant defend

[hilly81]

danblue, on 14 February 2017 - 01:23 PM, said:

and cant defend

A potent mix.

[Paul Fisher]

Zytok, on 14 February 2017 - 01:10 PM, said:

It doesn't matter when the last season was that 35 was enough (and I'm not saying it will be). I'm sorry to go on but saying we need to win 50% of our remaining games to have any chance of staying up is an exaggeration. This implies that all the other strugglers I mentioned will go on some kind of miracle run too and win 50%+ of their remaining games which is never gonna happen.

Like I say a 50% win-rate of the remaining matches would take the club to 51 points which COULD mean the club stays up, anything less than 50% then the club are relying on other teams to perform worse than they are. As it stands we are relying on other results because we are in the bottom four, the form guide suggests that Chesterfield aren't going to stay up.

You need to look at the historical tables to get the best guesswork, regardless of how other clubs do. As it stands Chesterfield aren't going to get the required amount of wins to stop up because they haven't shown the required win rate for the vast majority of the season, apart from the first week I think, when the win rate was something like 60%.

[hilly81]

Darcy Sarto, on 14 February 2017 - 01:24 PM, said:

Like I say a 50% win-rate of the remaining matches would take the club to 51 points which COULD mean the club stays up, anything less than 50% then the club are relying on other teams to perform worse than they are. As it stands we are relying on other results because we are in the bottom four, the form guide suggests that Chesterfield aren't going to stay up.

You need to look at the historical tables to get the best guesswork, regardless of how other clubs do. As it stands Chesterfield aren't going to get the required amount of wins to stop up because they haven't shown the required win rate for the vast majority of the season, apart from the first week I think, when the win rate was something like 60%.

League One final points tally - 21st position

2004/05: Torquay Utd 51 points

2005/06: Hartlepool 50 points

2006/07: Chesterfield 47 points

2007/08: Bournemouth 48 points

2008/09: Northampton 49 points

2009/10: Gillingham 50 points

2010/11: Dagenham & Redbridge 47 points

2011/12: Wycombe Wanderers 43 points

2012/13: Scunthorpe United 48 points

2013/14: Tranmere Rovers 47 points

Average points needed in that 10 year period 48.

This post has been edited by hilly81: 14 February 2017 - 01:27 PM

[Sammy Spireite]

In reality, the biggest pointer to where we'll finish the season, is the table as it is now.

We're down.

[Guest_freelander2_*]

hilly81, on 14 February 2017 - 01:26 PM, said:

League One final points tally - 21st position

2004/05: Torquay Utd 51 points

2005/06: Hartlepool 50 points

2006/07: Chesterfield 47 points

2007/08: Bournemouth 48 points

2008/09: Northampton 49 points

2009/10: Gillingham 50 points

2010/11: Dagenham & Redbridge 47 points

2011/12: Wycombe Wanderers 43 points

2012/13: Scunthorpe United 48 points

2013/14: Tranmere Rovers 47 points

I can't be bothered to look. However, it would be interesting to take a snapshot of what the league table looked like in those seasons after 30 / 31 games.