[Mr Mercury]

Love this analysis from Sky News on ministers in trouble?
If you?re a Northern working class politician like Haigh you?re out of the door, but if you?re a member of Starmers inner circle and a Metropolitan elitist you can survive for weeks..
https://news.sky.com...alties-13288935

[frearsghost]

s42blue, on 14 January 2025 - 12:52 PM, said:

Not what you?d hope he?d say but what you genuinely expected him to say. I?d be very surprised if they?re not different.

There was no way on earth he was going to say she?s sacked after he?d appointed her a matter of months ago. No way. I?d be amazed if you think differently.

It's only a matter of time and in any case it won't be Starmer's decision. It will be made for him by the Bond Market. With Reeves borrowing nearly 300 billion from the market - the government issues bonds for the amount and the lenders buy them, effectively taking on the government's debt, they will want reassurity and confidence they won't lose money - but because high yields and bonds have an inverse relationship, the higher the yield, the lower the price of the original price of the bond, lending becomes more risky. Ipso facto, the government will do as it's told. If the Bond Market wants Reeves out because it sees her as a risk to their investment, then she's out, or no loans. That would crash the economy and fuel a depression.

[s42blue]

 frearsghost, on 15 January 2025 - 10:19 AM, said:

It's only a matter of time and in any case it won't be Starmer's decision. It will be made for him by the Bond Market. With Reeves borrowing nearly 300 billion from the market - the government issues bonds for the amount and the lenders buy them, effectively taking on the government's debt, they will want reassurity and confidence they won't lose money - but because high yields and bonds have an inverse relationship, the higher the yield, the lower the price of the original price of the bond, lending becomes more risky. Ipso facto, the government will do as it's told. If the Bond Market wants Reeves out because it sees her as a risk to their investment, then she's out, or no loans. That would crash the economy and fuel a depression.

Yeah I?m very familiar with the bond market. As I?ve stated further up the thread to blame RR completely for this is naive and biased (I?m not saying that?s you btw). My question was abut the politics of him saying anything different.

[s42blue]

Surprised there are no Labour supporters trumpeting the fall of inflation?

Or opposition parties saying it?s nothing to do with Labour.

[Mr Mercury]

 s42blue, on 15 January 2025 - 10:38 AM, said:

Surprised there are no Labour supporters trumpeting the fall of inflation?

Or opposition parties saying it?s nothing to do with Labour.

Apparently this fall has little to do with Reeves. But as minuscule as it is I hope it gives her a brief respite, she?s obviously struggling with the job, mind you then I think of all the pensioners who suffered over the last weeks cold spell and I review my thoughts of respite for her. I hope she gets none.

[frearsghost]

s42blue, on 15 January 2025 - 10:28 AM, said:

Yeah I?m very familiar with the bond market. As I?ve stated further up the thread to blame RR completely for this is naive and biased (I?m not saying that?s you btw). My question was abut the politics of him saying anything different.

I put the bit in about yields because there may be some who don't understand how it works and their imapact on decision making. Yields are generally, globally high, but Reeves's budget has exacerbated the cost of UK borrowing. Some of us remember the sterling crisis of 1976 when Denis Healy, the Labour Chancellor, was forced to borrow from the IMF. The IMFcalled the tune and demanded stringent cuts that stabilsed the economy, the point being, it wasn't the Callaghan government that stablised the economy it was the lenders and so it will be with Reeves.
She has two options. Either raise more taxes or go for spending cuts.  Dennis Healey was a pleasant man with sense of humour. He had a cache phrase (Silly Billy) that endured him to the public. There was much affection for Callaghan too, a likeable, avuncular figure, affectionally known as (Sunny Jim). I voted for him in the days I believed socialism worked.

This post has been edited by frearsghost: Yesterday, 12:24 PM

[s42blue]

 frearsghost, on 15 January 2025 - 12:21 PM, said:

I put the bit in about yields because there may be some who don't understand how it works and their imapact on decision making. Yields are generally, globally high, but Reeves's budget has exacerbated the cost of UK borrowing. Some of us remember the sterling crisis of 1976 when Denis Healy, the Labour Chancellor, was forced to borrow from the IMF. The IMFcalled the tune and demanded stringent cuts that stabilsed the economy, the point being, it wasn't the Callaghan government that stablised the economy it was the lenders and so it will be with Reeves.
She has two options. Either raise more taxes or go for spending cuts.  Dennis Healey was a pleasant man with sense of humour. He had a cache phrase (Silly Billy) that endured him to the public. There was much affection for Callaghan too, a likeable, avuncular figure, affectionally known as (Sunny Jim). I voted for him in the days I believed socialism worked.

She , and if it?s not her her successor, undoubtedly will have a choice to make between tax or cut more. Reading yesterday it is likely to be the latter. Whether this is an economic or political route to take remains unclear.

Yep the IMF 76 crisis is well documented and hopefully not repeated.

[Tylerdurdencfc]

I notice KS failed to provide reassurance when questioned about ruling out tax increases this year. Saying, 'there are limits to what he can say now at the dispatch box'.


Expect more tax rises in the next budget then.

[isleaiw1]

s42blue, on 15 January 2025 - 10:38 AM, said:

Surprised there are no Labour supporters trumpeting the fall of inflation?

Or opposition parties saying it?s nothing to do with Labour.

Down to hotel prices, you can thank me later....

[s42blue]

 isleaiw1, on 15 January 2025 - 03:47 PM, said:

Down to hotel prices, you can thank me later....

I did wonder 🤔.

I thought you were ex-Hotelman?

[azul]

s42blue, on 15 January 2025 - 10:38 AM, said:

Surprised there are no Labour supporters trumpeting the fall of inflation?

Or opposition parties saying it?s nothing to do with Labour.

Nice to see interest rate cuts back on the agenda and the cost of government borrowing has tumbled.

Just a snapshot but if it turns into a trend I'm sure everyone here will be ecstatic

[azul]

isleaiw1, on 15 January 2025 - 03:47 PM, said:

Down to hotel prices, you can thank me later....

I suppose they aren't carrying so much deadweight recently

[isleaiw1]

s42blue, on 15 January 2025 - 07:05 PM, said:

I did wonder 🤔.

I thought you were ex-Hotelman?

Its clearly because I have left the industry

[isleaiw1]

azul, on 15 January 2025 - 07:45 PM, said:

I suppose they aren't carrying so much deadweight recently

No room for deadweight in the private sector... although I did add ?40m to the bottom line in 4 years so they may be missing me

I did watch the Labour party political broadcast tonight... some takeaways...

KS - dont listen to those who say its easy, there are no easy solutions

Also KS - we will smash the gangs

KS - some people will sit and criticise but not say what they would do

Also KS pre election this govt are rubbish but we wont tell you what we are going to do...

KS - some people dont like change because they like the status quo

KS' paymasters - we refuse to accept any changes to working conditions, just give us the cash...

He's about as knowledgable as you when it comes to statements it seems....

[azul]

isleaiw1, on 15 January 2025 - 07:56 PM, said:

No room for deadweight in the private sector

[frearsghost]

azul, on 15 January 2025 - 07:43 PM, said:

Nice to see interest rate cuts back on the agenda and the cost of government borrowing has tumbled.

Just a snapshot but if it turns into a trend I'm sure everyone here will be ecstatic

Today 12.15pm


Rising borrowing costs batter UK government and threaten to derail its left-leaning program | AP News

It will eventually but not today I'm afraid.

[isleaiw1]

azul, on 15 January 2025 - 07:43 PM, said:

Nice to see interest rate cuts back on the agenda and the cost of government borrowing has tumbled.

Just a snapshot but if it turns into a trend I'm sure everyone here will be ecstatic

You didnt mention the good news from the US as a big part of the reason that bets are moving to cuts being more likely. Funny that...

[azul]

isleaiw1, on 15 January 2025 - 10:19 PM, said:

You didnt mention the good news from the US as a big part of the reason that bets are moving to cuts being more likely. Funny that...

Can't remember proportioning any credit whatsoever. Just suggesting it is good news - sure you'll agree

This post has been edited by azul: Yesterday, 11:33 PM

[azul]

.

This post has been edited by azul: Yesterday, 11:22 PM