[Spire-Heights]

a kick in the balls, on 18 June 2017 - 09:11 AM, said:

Surely the starting point for the odds is based on the club, the squad, the signings etc

Agreed. So, if someone lumped on Huddersfield big to win the Premiership, would they become favourites with the bookies. I don't think so... on the same token, if no one bet on Chelsea would they go to like 20/1. No they wouldn't.

This post has been edited by Spire-Heights: 18 June 2017 - 09:39 AM

[CFC91]

a kick in the balls, on 18 June 2017 - 09:11 AM, said:

Surely the starting point for the odds is based on the club, the squad, the signings etc

Correct.

The traders will look at current squad, signings, last seasons performance and educated guesses when compiling odds. Anyone on here could price up next seasons PL and not be far off what the bookies have.

Generally traders from different bookies will check with each other before releasing prices. You can move the market with decent sized bets on outsiders but generally as the market is so massive there won't be much movement from 1 or 2 bets. Horse racing is much different, a handful of bets on a 50/1 shot at Wolverhampton on a Wednesday night will get the prices shortened as generally the knowledge / info available to traders isn't as clear or accurate so better safe than sorry. You'll see more fluctuation on oddschecker in horse racing than you will in the PL for that reason..

[Ernie Ernie Ernie]

frearsghost, on 17 June 2017 - 06:54 PM, said:

If you think bookies odds and punters bets are not determined by the kind of players a club signs or the size of its budget then I'm surprised.

PS To be fair. I talking pre-season. Pre-season odds do tend to hold although, if an unfancied team hits the top spot, who they signed does go out of the window as their odds will shorten to reflect their present position.

That's exactly what I'm saying odds are decided by punters bets

[Ernie Ernie Ernie]

Spire-Heights, on 18 June 2017 - 09:36 AM, said:

Agreed. So, if someone lumped on Huddersfield big to win the Premiership, would they become favourites with the bookies. I don't think so... on the same token, if no one bet on Chelsea would they go to like 20/1. No they wouldn't.

We weren't talking about starting odds but how they would change if we signed OGrady.
There would always be enough bets on Chelsea to offset any bet on Huddersfield. The market on the Prem is enourmous and requires huge amounts of money to change the odds. At towns level not so

[Spire-Heights]

Ernie Ernie Ernie, on 18 June 2017 - 05:07 PM, said:

We weren't talking about starting odds but how they would change if we signed OGrady.
There would always be enough bets on Chelsea to offset any bet on Huddersfield. The market on the Prem is enourmous and requires huge amounts of money to change the odds. At towns level not so

So what you saying, if we sign O'Grady, our odds reduce? I thought you said it's all down to the amount of bets placed etc? And not what players we sign etc?

This post has been edited by Spire-Heights: 18 June 2017 - 05:40 PM

[Ernie Ernie Ernie]

Spire-Heights, on 18 June 2017 - 05:39 PM, said:

So what you saying, if we sign O'Grady, our odds reduce? I thought you said it's all down to the amount of bets placed etc? And not what players we sign etc?

I'm saying now odds are out if we sign O'Grady nothing will happen until someone places a bet. If bets are substantial odds will reduce dramatically because the market has no depth. If people don't bet odds will stay same or actually lengthen if other teams are bet.

[Wooden Spoon]

dim view said:

1497769011[/url]' post='1309864']
morning ode lad

.......Jerome Bomb-on Williams's much viewed goal against us was the match in which Hird got MOM from the posh seats but then quite rightly got dropped from the team for the next match cos of his poor play.
Funny old game.

Apart from being a complete fabrication...........

[Wooden Spoon]

dim view said:

1497771158[/url]' post='1309867']
Ha ha.
Shows what I know.

I remember the gist of the debate but obviously not the fine detail. Sorry.

A good starting point is for debate is seeing what the court jester says, taking it as absolute tosh and looking for the real facts


Mick might be a chum of yours, but online you might want to find new allies


Maggie has bigger swingers than this cowardly wretch, despite his fund raising activities and standing based on this

[dim view]

a kick in the balls, on 18 June 2017 - 07:10 PM, said:

Apart from being a complete fabrication...........

I don't do complete fabrications, not on purpose anyway.

http://www.thecfss.c...showtopic=55902

[dim view]

a kick in the balls, on 18 June 2017 - 07:13 PM, said:

A good starting point is for debate is seeing what the court jester says, taking it as absolute tosh and looking for the real facts


Mick might be a chum of yours, but online you might want to find new allies


Maggie has bigger swingers than this cowardly wretch, despite his fund raising activities and standing based on this

Do know him, never met him, don't post to gain allies. Apart from that....

[sophocles]

dim view, on 18 June 2017 - 07:32 AM, said:

Ha ha.
Shows what I know.

I remember the gist of the debate but obviously not the fine detail. Sorry.

What does a small detail like that matter when you're determined to slag someone off? Remember your motto - never let facts get in the way of good old prejudice and bigotry.

[Mr Mercury]

dim view, on 18 June 2017 - 07:49 PM, said:

Do know him, never met him, don't post to gain allies. Apart from that....

I don't know him but would like to meet him to see if he's really all ollux or can he have a decent discussion face to face, sadly I doubt that will happen, but he will get bit on the bum.

[dim view]

sophocles, on 18 June 2017 - 08:08 PM, said:

What does a small detail like that matter when you're determined to slag someone off? Remember your motto - never let facts get in the way of good old prejudice and bigotry.

the bald facts are that Sam played against Burton, played in the midweek game against Blackpool which we also lost, and then was dropped at Crewe with Raglan being preferred, and we won.

So, hardly a complete fabrication in my opinion but I'm still sorry I forgot that the Blackpool game intervened.

[Middle East]

Ernie Ernie Ernie, on 18 June 2017 - 06:22 PM, said:

I'm saying now odds are out if we sign O'Grady nothing will happen until someone places a bet. If bets are substantial odds will reduce dramatically because the market has no depth. If people don't bet odds will stay same or actually lengthen if other teams are bet.

So what happens at the bookies if we suddenly sign...moussa, Roberts, Ryan, morsey o Grady and lavery then Ern? Apart from us all dropping over with with shock!!!! You reckon the bookies will still keep our price the same!!! Pmsl

[frearsghost]

[quote name='Ernie Ernie Ernie' timestamp='1497805421' post='1309908']
That's exactly what I'm saying odds are decided by punters bets
[/quote

Others have made it clear. You need to ask yourself what is the criterion that makes punters lay bets. A quality player perhaps?

This post has been edited by frearsghost: 19 June 2017 - 08:41 AM

[CFC91]

Middle East, on 18 June 2017 - 11:12 PM, said:

So what happens at the bookies if we suddenly sign...moussa, Roberts, Ryan, morsey o Grady and lavery then Ern? Apart from us all dropping over with with shock!!!! You reckon the bookies will still keep our price the same!!! Pmsl

Depends how ITK the traders are. If you are quick enough off the mark with lower leagues you can get a decent price and generally the trading on the lower leagues won't be as reactive as they would be if Everton suddenly signed Messi and Ronaldo.

Our price would be cut but maybe not instantly if we signed those players, or even before the official announcements, as they would be in the Prem

This post has been edited by CFC91: 19 June 2017 - 08:57 AM

[Ernie Ernie Ernie]

Middle East, on 18 June 2017 - 11:12 PM, said:

So what happens at the bookies if we suddenly sign...moussa, Roberts, Ryan, morsey o Grady and lavery then Ern? Apart from us all dropping over with with shock!!!! You reckon the bookies will still keep our price the same!!! Pmsl

I reckon fans will instantly put money on trying to get in before others do and the price will start to fall. It's still reliant on a balanced book and folk placing bets. If people don't place bets there isn't a market worth having

[Ernie Ernie Ernie]

Others have made it clear. You need to ask yourself what is the criterion that makes punters lay bets. A quality player perhaps?
[/quote]

Obviously but you've missed the point. The odds won't change until you actually place the bet. What you are arguing is that if nobody places a bet following the signing of say O'Grady the odds will fall. I'm saying they won't.

This post has been edited by Ernie Ernie Ernie: 19 June 2017 - 09:13 AM

[Close but no prawn sarnies]

Out of interest what are the odds of us signing OGrady ??

Would they go up or down if Ashley tweeted it was nailed on ??

[frearsghost]

O'Grady signs.

Town's odds slashed from 16-1 to 4-1 or 7-2. Take your choice.