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Doyle's Triple Hat-Trick Odds

#1 User is offline   Westbars Spireite 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 05:02 PM

40/1 @ Paddy Power.

Looks a good price to me and I'll kick myself if he does it and I'm not on.
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#2 User is offline   metallilad 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 07:22 PM

View PostWestbars Spireite, on 19 September 2014 - 05:02 PM, said:

40/1 @ Paddy Power.

Looks a good price to me and I'll kick myself if he does it and I'm not on.

Definately a good price. 25/1 with William Hill.
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#3 User is offline   Zeus 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 07:30 PM

View Postmetallilad, on 19 September 2014 - 07:22 PM, said:

Definately a good price. 25/1 with William Hill.


They must be cacking themselves.
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#4 User is offline   Westbars Spireite 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 07:52 PM

It's extremely unlikely. Obviously.

But he's a man in the form of his life and after doing it twice I would suggest that 40/1 is greater than the actual probability.
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#5 User is offline   starsky72 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 08:18 PM

How would you calculate the actual probability??
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#6 User is offline   Westbars Spireite 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 08:28 PM

In this case entirely in my head.
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#7 User is offline   McScab 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 08:32 PM

What's the odds for him not scoring?
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#8 User is offline   Search & Destroy 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 08:37 PM

He's no more nor no more less likely to score a hatrick just because he's got 2 previously, the odds are the same.

The bookies would only be worried if someone has placed a bet on 3 consecutive hatricks and no one would have done that.

It's like tossing a coin, if you toss 10 straight heads, the next toss is still 50/50.
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#9 User is offline   Westbars Spireite 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 08:47 PM

Why, do coins have emotions and form?
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#10 User is offline   Bankrobber 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 08:50 PM

If you bet with Skybet, make sure you register your team of choice for the Transfer Fund compo. Could win yourself (5k) and CFC some dosh (250k).
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#11 User is offline   BigBlue 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 09:21 PM

I had a massive 2 quid on his first hatrick, at 33/1. He gets one early tomorrow you never know. Plus if Johnsons on his game like the past few games it could happen. Johnson is key.
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#12 User is offline   Sammy Spireite 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 09:34 PM

View PostSearch and Destroy, on 19 September 2014 - 08:37 PM, said:

He's no more nor no more less likely to score a hatrick just because he's got 2 previously, the odds are the same.

The bookies would only be worried if someone has placed a bet on 3 consecutive hatricks and no one would have done that.

It's like tossing a coin, if you toss 10 straight heads, the next toss is still 50/50.

So you're saying he's just as likely to get a Hat Trick away At Bristol City as he is at home to Scunthorpe??
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#13 User is offline   Search & Destroy 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 09:49 PM

No, I'm saying the two previous hatricks don't really improve the odds of a third one tomorrow.
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#14 User is offline   Zeus 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 09:55 PM

View PostSearch and Destroy, on 19 September 2014 - 09:49 PM, said:

No, I'm saying the two previous hatricks don't really improve the odds of a third one tomorrow.


So why are we not offered the same odds for Eoin Doyle as we are for Tommy Lee to score a hattrick?
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#15 User is offline   Westbars Spireite 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 09:56 PM

View PostSearch and Destroy, on 19 September 2014 - 09:49 PM, said:

No, I'm saying the two previous hatricks don't really improve the odds of a third one tomorrow.


Of course it does. He's in form and scoring goals. It isn't a scientific experiment.
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#16 User is offline   sophocles 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 10:06 PM

View PostSearch and Destroy, on 19 September 2014 - 09:49 PM, said:

No, I'm saying the two previous hatricks don't really improve the odds of a third one tomorrow.


Of course that is true statistically, but his previous success may well have increased his confidence level, and also the players who provide his chances (especially Johnson) will be even more aware of his runs. I would say the chances of him scoring are increased by those factors, though not necessarily of scoring a hat trick. I personally don't ever contribute to bookies bank balances, but I will be very surprised if Doyle doesn't score at least once tomorrow.
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#17 User is offline   Search & Destroy 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 10:31 PM

View PostWestbars Spireite, on 19 September 2014 - 09:56 PM, said:

Of course it does. He's in form and scoring goals. It isn't a scientific experiment.



So if he doesn't score a hatrick tomorrow his chances of a hatrick against Notts Co are diminished?

Or do they remain the same?
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#18 User is offline   Ernie Ernie Ernie 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 11:04 PM

View PostSearch and Destroy, on 19 September 2014 - 10:31 PM, said:

So if he doesn't score a hatrick tomorrow his chances of a hatrick against Notts Co are diminished?

Or do they remain the same?


As it's at home id say chances are greater
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#19 User is offline   Westbars Spireite 

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Posted 19 September 2014 - 11:16 PM

View PostErnie Ernie Ernie, on 19 September 2014 - 11:04 PM, said:

As it's at home id say chances are greater


Is the right answer.

What I'm saying is form plays a part. You cannot treat it as if it were a toin coss without external influence.
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#20 User is offline   Wooden Spoon 

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Posted 20 September 2014 - 01:18 AM

View PostZeus, on 19 September 2014 - 09:55 PM, said:

So why are we not offered the same odds for Eoin Doyle as we are for Tommy Lee to score a hattrick?

Is this real life?

Why isn't a goalkeeper getting the same odds as a striker to score a hat trick?
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