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Scoring Goals As A Team.

#1 User is offline   Bonnyman 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 07:39 AM

I have a theory that to play a front 4 as in the 1 up top 3 in behind that we play the front 4 have to have a 1 in 5 ratio of goals to games meaning the remaing 20% is made up of the other 6 out field players,the problem is that although he has played well romy boco falls well short in those stats,will playing him in a front 4 be detrimental to our chances of scoring over the course of the season and is he a better player to use defending a lead,for what its worth i think doyle may be better playing as one of the 3 ,i dont think his ratio would dip that much if he played a bit deeper , i also think cook needs to go for a proven striker with a 1 in 3 ratio return upfront perhaps from div 2..its a bit of a moneyball theory but if the overall percentages of all the players adds up to over 100% then the chances are one goal per game is the minimum return.

This post has been edited by bonnyman: 21 August 2014 - 07:39 AM

ITS NOT THE WINNING,ITS THE TAKING APART
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#2 User is offline   The Nemo Kid 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 07:47 AM

View Postbonnyman, on 21 August 2014 - 07:39 AM, said:

I have a theory that to play a front 4 as in the 1 up top 3 in behind that we play the front 4 have to have a 1 in 5 ratio of goals to games meaning the remaing 20% is made up of the other 6 out field players,the problem is that although he has played well romy boco falls well short in those stats,will playing him in a front 4 be detrimental to our chances of scoring over the course of the season and is he a better player to use defending a lead,for what its worth i think doyle may be better playing as one of the 3 ,i dont think his ratio would dip that much if he played a bit deeper , i also think cook needs to go for a proven striker with a 1 in 3 ratio return upfront perhaps from div 2..its a bit of a moneyball theory but if the overall percentages of all the players adds up to over 100% then the chances are one goal per game is the minimum return.



3 games played 1 goal scored. I would say those stats say different !!!!!
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#3 User is online   Westbars Spireite 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 07:50 AM

Cook would love a 'proven' striker, hence his persuit of Higdon and the other unnamed player he wanted
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#4 User is offline   Bonnyman 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 07:51 AM

View PostThe Nemo Kid, on 21 August 2014 - 07:47 AM, said:

3 games played 1 goal scored. I would say those stats say different !!!!!

Bocu is a 1 in 9 player on career goals

Oshea 1 in 6

Banks 1 in 4.5

Doyle 1 in 4.5

Roberts 1 in 5

Gardner 1 in 3.5 but not a proven stat

The point being we may not need a player who is proven at this level a striker with a 1 in 3 ratio as a whole would be fine as long as it keeps the rayio of the front 4 down the lower the overall ratio the greater the chance of goals per game.

This post has been edited by bonnyman: 21 August 2014 - 08:00 AM

ITS NOT THE WINNING,ITS THE TAKING APART
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#5 User is offline   The Nemo Kid 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 08:00 AM

View Postbonnyman, on 21 August 2014 - 07:51 AM, said:

Bocu is a 1 in 9 player on career goals



He has had a good start with us. Whether things would change if he got a contract is impossible to predict but give him a chance before sharpening the knives.
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#6 User is offline   The Nemo Kid 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 08:03 AM

View Postbonnyman, on 21 August 2014 - 07:51 AM, said:

Bocu is a 1 in 9 player on career goals

Oshea 1 in 6

Banks 1 in 4.5

Doyle 1 in 4.5

Roberts 1 in 5

Gardner 1 in 3.5 but not a proven stat

The point being we may not need a player who is proven at this level a striker with a 1 in 3 ratio as a whole would be fine as long as it keeps the rayio of the front 4 down the lower the overall ratio the greater the chance of goals per game.

Sorry Bonnyman , your original post makes no reference to career stats.
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#7 User is offline   Bonnyman 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 08:05 AM

View PostThe Nemo Kid, on 21 August 2014 - 08:00 AM, said:

He has had a good start with us. Whether things would change if he got a contract is impossible to predict but give him a chance before sharpening the knives.

It isnt about bocu im not analysing his performances or anybody else just demonstrating a theory that you could have players w x y and z in the front 4 but if their ratio of goals to games isnt high enough then as a team you will score less theoretically you could have a player who isnt as good as bocu but plays with a higher scoring ratio being a better point scoring asset.
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#8 User is offline   Nassau_board 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 08:14 AM

How many of those games in Boco's career has he played in the position he is playing in the team he is playing? 1 in 3. You can't judge a player by him playing out of position (last season he was playing wide left in a 442) and when he was playing in different teams with different ethos.

I think we are all concerned about where the goals are going to come from, but so far we should be worried more about Roberts et al than Boco.
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#9 User is offline   Spire-Power 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 08:16 AM

View Postbonnyman, on 21 August 2014 - 07:39 AM, said:

I have a theory that to play a front 4 as in the 1 up top 3 in behind that we play the front 4 have to have a 1 in 5 ratio of goals to games meaning the remaing 20% is made up of the other 6 out field players,the problem is that although he has played well romy boco falls well short in those stats,will playing him in a front 4 be detrimental to our chances of scoring over the course of the season and is he a better player to use defending a lead,for what its worth i think doyle may be better playing as one of the 3 ,i dont think his ratio would dip that much if he played a bit deeper , i also think cook needs to go for a proven striker with a 1 in 3 ratio return upfront perhaps from div 2..its a bit of a moneyball theory but if the overall percentages of all the players adds up to over 100% then the chances are one goal per game is the minimum return.

Westbars has pointed out the elephant in the room re this theory. A proven striker would be ideal. Individual goal records are an indication of what will happen but they aren't set in stone eg Lester's record pre-Chesterfield. If we can't get a proven striker then hopefully it will "click" for Doyle this season and he can bag 20 goals.
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#10 User is offline   Bonnyman 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 08:20 AM

View PostNassau_board, on 21 August 2014 - 08:14 AM, said:

How many of those games in Boco's career has he played in the position he is playing in the team he is playing? 1 in 3. You can't judge a player by him playing out of position (last season he was playing wide left in a 442) and when he was playing in different teams with different ethos.

I think we are all concerned about where the goals are going to come from, but so far we should be worried more about Roberts et al than Boco.

You are right and it would be near impossible to find out ,interestingly cook told oshea he needed to score more goals last season yet his stats read better than bocu over his career but still fall short of the desired amount,like i said it isnt about individuals its just about the front 4s ability to score and imo the lower the ratio of the starting front 4 the less chance we have of them scoring.
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#11 User is offline   Bonnyman 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 08:24 AM

View PostSpire-Power, on 21 August 2014 - 08:16 AM, said:

Westbars has pointed out the elephant in the room re this theory. A proven striker would be ideal. Individual goal records are an indication of what will happen but they aren't set in stone eg Lester's record pre-Chesterfield. If we can't get a proven striker then hopefully it will "click" for Doyle this season and he can bag 20 goals.

Thats why its a theory and thats why nassau is also correct in that bocu may not have played in the role,lester would be a great example of blowing the theory out the water but lester never played in a front 4 also and more or less as a 442 player .My theory is based on a system that requires all of the front 4 chipping in with goals on a consistent basis with the focal player doyle in our case having the lowesrlt ratio but not having to have a lester like ratio.
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#12 User is offline   Spire-Power 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 08:31 AM

View Postbonnyman, on 21 August 2014 - 08:24 AM, said:

Thats why its a theory and thats why nassau is also correct in that bocu may not have played in the role,lester would be a great example of blowing the theory out the water but lester never played in a front 4 also and more or less as a 442 player .My theory is based on a system that requires all of the front 4 chipping in with goals on a consistent basis with the focal player doyle in our case having the lowesrlt ratio but not having to have a lester like ratio.

If Doyle plays around 40 games I reckon he could get 20 or close to it. Yes he might miss 500 chances but he'll score fairly regularly imo. Sometimes it just clicks for a player. It did for Banks last season before his injury. It could be Boco this season, who knows. Theres lots of examples of 'leopards changing their spots' when players move clubs eg Pope from Rotherham to Port vale.
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#13 User is offline   Sammy Spireite 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 08:41 AM

View Postbonnyman, on 21 August 2014 - 08:24 AM, said:

Thats why its a theory and thats why nassau is also correct in that bocu may not have played in the role,lester would be a great example of blowing the theory out the water but lester never played in a front 4 also and more or less as a 442 player .My theory is based on a system that requires all of the front 4 chipping in with goals on a consistent basis with the focal player doyle in our case having the lowesrlt ratio but not having to have a lester like ratio.

Doyles ratio (if it's based on his whole career) doesn't allow for the fact he played RM the majority of his time in Scotland, and indeed he's played wide as much as he's played the line striker role here.

Surely you can only judge a players stats, based on his time with us, playing in our system, over a period of time.

With a good run as the lone striker (which it currently looks like he's gonna get) Doyle should get 15 goals over the season. This is still a decent return, for a mid-lower table league 1 side.
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#14 User is offline   Ernie Ernie Ernie 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 08:52 AM

View Postbonnyman, on 21 August 2014 - 07:39 AM, said:

I have a theory that to play a front 4 as in the 1 up top 3 in behind that we play the front 4 have to have a 1 in 5 ratio of goals to games meaning the remaing 20% is made up of the other 6 out field players,the problem is that although he has played well romy boco falls well short in those stats,will playing him in a front 4 be detrimental to our chances of scoring over the course of the season and is he a better player to use defending a lead,for what its worth i think doyle may be better playing as one of the 3 ,i dont think his ratio would dip that much if he played a bit deeper , i also think cook needs to go for a proven striker with a 1 in 3 ratio return upfront perhaps from div 2..its a bit of a moneyball theory but if the overall percentages of all the players adds up to over 100% then the chances are one goal per game is the minimum return.


You could have saved yourself a lot of time and just put "Cook needs to go for a proven striker"
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#15 User is offline   fatfrank 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 09:05 AM

View PostNassau_board, on 21 August 2014 - 08:14 AM, said:

How many of those games in Boco's career has he played in the position he is playing in the team he is playing? 1 in 3. You can't judge a player by him playing out of position (last season he was playing wide left in a 442) and when he was playing in different teams with different ethos.

I think we are all concerned about where the goals are going to come from, but so far we should be worried more about Roberts et al than Boco.

Good point his stats whilst playing for Paul Cook are 1 in 5.3, so PC obviously knows how to use him.
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#16 User is offline   Bonnyman 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 09:48 AM

View PostErnie Ernie Ernie, on 21 August 2014 - 08:52 AM, said:

You could have saved yourself a lot of time and just put "Cook needs to go for a proven striker"

Not really because proven striker at league 1 level costs big money thats why i gave a moneyball type theory that maybe a lower league striker who consistently scores 1 in 4 or better may be good enough.
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#17 User is offline   Bonnyman 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 09:53 AM

View Postfatfrank, on 21 August 2014 - 09:05 AM, said:

Good point his stats whilst playing for Paul Cook are 1 in 5.3, so PC obviously knows how to use him.

Good call then ,it isnt about individuals its about scoring if bocu is 1 in 5.3 for cook then its pretty decent although id factor in that its been achieved at lower level so his ratio is in all probability going to decrease,osheas stats show he needs to score more goals
I just think that if you play a front four they need to chip in with 80% of the goals.
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#18 User is offline   Wooden Spoon 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 10:01 AM

View PostSpire-Power, on 21 August 2014 - 08:31 AM, said:

If Doyle plays around 40 games I reckon he could get 20 or close to it. Yes he might miss 500 chances but he'll score fairly regularly imo. Sometimes it just clicks for a player. It did for Banks last season before his injury. It could be Boco this season, who knows. Theres lots of examples of 'leopards changing their spots' when players move clubs eg Pope from Rotherham to Port vale.

Can't see Doyle ever getting a ration close to 2 goals every 5 games. 1 in 4 perhaps.
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#19 User is offline   BlueRover52 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 10:04 AM

View Postbonnyman, on 21 August 2014 - 08:20 AM, said:

You are right and it would be near impossible to find out ,interestingly cook told oshea he needed to score more goals last season yet his stats read better than bocu over his career but still fall short of the desired amount,like i said it isnt about individuals its just about the front 4s ability to score and imo the lower the ratio of the starting front 4 the less chance we have of them scoring.

:unsure: If O'Shea had been more sharper in front of goal he would have scored more.Having said that it can be applied to others.If the chances that come along are taken we will score more goals.As the MKDs match showed,clearcut chances may be rare playing at this "higher level",so they shouldn't be wasted when they present themselves. :blush:
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#20 User is offline   fatfrank 

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Posted 21 August 2014 - 10:11 AM

View Postbonnyman, on 21 August 2014 - 09:53 AM, said:

Good call then ,it isnt about individuals its about scoring if bocu is 1 in 5.3 for cook then its pretty decent although id factor in that its been achieved at lower level so his ratio is in all probability going to decrease,osheas stats show he needs to score more goals
I just think that if you play a front four they need to chip in with 80% of the goals.

I would agree with that entirely it was just that your OP seemed to single Boco out as being the under performer in our front four.
P.S. are you deliberately misspelling his name or is it some sort of auto correct.
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