[Bonnyman]

Westbars Spireite, on 19 September 2014 - 07:52 PM, said:

It's extremely unlikely. Obviously.

But he's a man in the form of his life and after doing it twice I would suggest that 40/1 is greater than the actual probability.

i ran 2 betting shops for over a decade ,i can assure you if bookmakers are offering 40/1 on a hattrick its not greater than the actual probability,if doyle was 5/2 to score in the game then in theory him getting a hatrick would be 35/1,but its not that simple as many variables are taken into consideration,firstly if doyle is 5/2 to score a goal in a game,then he has 90 minutes to do that,to score a 2nd goal he has less than 90 minutes to achieve it and to score a third even less time so every time he scores his odds increase if he scored a goal on 10 minutes ,50 minutes and 80 minutes the odds on him scoring would probably be...5/2...3/1 and 5/1..which would be 83/1.Also the hatrick is away from home,i dont think 100/1 would have been value.

[Westbars Spireite]

bonnyman, on 20 September 2014 - 10:55 PM, said:

i ran 2 betting shops for over a decade ,i can assure you if bookmakers are offering 40/1 on a hattrick its not greater than the actual probability,if doyle was 5/2 to score in the game then in theory him getting a hatrick would be 35/1,but its not that simple as many variables are taken into consideration,firstly if doyle is 5/2 to score a goal in a game,then he has 90 minutes to do that,to score a 2nd goal he has less than 90 minutes to achieve it and to score a third even less time so every time he scores his odds increase if he scored a goal on 10 minutes ,50 minutes and 80 minutes the odds on him scoring would probably be...5/2...3/1 and 5/1..which would be 83/1.Also the hatrick is away from home,i dont think 100/1 would have been value.

He was 11/10 to score in the game. Not that I was on it. 5/2 would have been daft.

[Bonnyman]

Zeus, on 20 September 2014 - 09:25 AM, said:

I see you reneged on your "last comment" promise.

1) People are sentimental, Doyle has been backed into lower odds with some bookies offering 22/1 this weekend, whether or not he's actually more likely...

2) He is more likely, Messi is 9/1 this weekend, Ronaldo is 14/1, it makes sense as they score hattricks more often. Doyle now has a precedent, hence his odds are lower.

2) Is that actually true about the odds v Scunthorpe or are you making it up to back up your point?

His odds may have been lower but market forces dictate the price .In reality,prior to the scunthorpe game doyles odds on a hatrick would have been realistically 100/1,in his next game probably roughly the same because he was away from home but you have to factor him in being in form,after his preston hartick,he would be a 90/1 chance because you have to factor in he is in red hot form,search and destroy is partially right and i understand where he is coming from but heisnt factoring in that doyle is improving ,that is a variable so the odds have to change as they do for home and away matches.

[Bonnyman]

Westbars Spireite, on 20 September 2014 - 10:58 PM, said:

He was 11/10 to score in the game. Not that I was on it. 5/2 would have been daft.

ok,he was 11/10,now that was a daft price and based purely on market forces,people who backed doyle at 11/10 got paid out but had bad value for money at those prices he would need to score 40 goals this season to break level if he played all league matches.If doyle plays 50 matches this season and scores 20,he is 5/2 to score a goal in a match at least.

[Spireite-Karl]

Zeus, on 20 September 2014 - 06:02 PM, said:

That's a statistical fallacy S&D is arguing against. You wouldn't have been betting on him to score 3 consecutive hattricks, you'd have been betting on him to score 1 hattrick given he's already got 2.


I'm not arguing against any of that.


You said so yourself, form has an influence. Allow me to reduce the case to one goal: a forward player is more likely to score a goal after scoring in the previous week.

And seeing as he's scored so many this season and back to back hat-tricks he's more than likely to be even more keenly marked than before he'd score a shed load of goals so it works both ways.