[Mr Mercury]

Search and Destroy, on 19 September 2014 - 08:37 PM, said:

He's no more nor no more less likely to score a hatrick just because he's got 2 previously, the odds are the same.

The bookies would only be worried if someone has placed a bet on 3 consecutive hatricks and no one would have done that.

It's like tossing a coin, if you toss 10 straight heads, the next toss is still 50/50.

No it's not..for example would Wayne Roneys odds of hitting a hatrick v Pinxton Miners Welfare in the FA cup be the same as him getting one v Barcelona? A coin toss is a simple yes or no..a hatrick in football has to take in many more variables.

[Trigger]

Mr Mercury, on 20 September 2014 - 06:55 AM, said:

No it's not..for example would Wayne Roneys odds of hitting a hatrick v Pinxton Miners Welfare in the FA cup be the same as him getting one v Barcelona? A coin toss is a simple yes or no..a hatrick in football has to take in many more variables.

He won't get 1 vs Barcelona this season ;-)

[Zeus]

a kick in the balls, on 20 September 2014 - 01:18 AM, said:

Is this real life?

Why isn't a goalkeeper getting the same odds as a striker to score a hat trick?

S&D is talking tosh, I was extrapolating his viewpoint.

[Lincs Spireite]

Westbars Spireite, on 19 September 2014 - 05:02 PM, said:

40/1 @ Paddy Power.

Looks a good price to me and I'll kick myself if he does it and I'm not on.

Was talking to a blunts supporter at work the other day, he reckons someone will either break his legs on pitch or a manager will sell half his team to buy him !!!

[Search & Destroy]

Mr Mercury, on 20 September 2014 - 06:55 AM, said:

No it's not..for example would Wayne Roneys odds of hitting a hatrick v Pinxton Miners Welfare in the FA cup be the same as him getting one v Barcelona? A coin toss is a simple yes or no..a hatrick in football has to take in many more variables.

absolutely, but his odds of a hatrick against Barcelona wouldn't be affected if he a got a hatrick against Pinxton the week before.

Doyles chances are no stronger this week than last.

[Westbars Spireite]

Bowzer spirey, on 20 September 2014 - 08:34 AM, said:

Was talking to a blunts supporter at work the other day, he reckons someone will either break his legs on pitch or a manager will sell half his team to buy him !!!

Look upon talking to them as missionary work.

[Search & Destroy]

Zeus, on 20 September 2014 - 08:11 AM, said:

S&D is talking tosh, I was extrapolating his viewpoint.

And making a pretty poor attempt, my last comment on the matter A PREVIOUS TWO HATRICKS DO NOT SHORTEN THE ODDS OR INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A THIRD ONE JUST LIKE NOT SCORING TODAY WILL NOT DECREASE HIS CHANCES OF SCORING NEXT WEEK

[BeastMode]

Search and Destroy, on 20 September 2014 - 08:34 AM, said:

absolutely, but his odds of a hatrick against Barcelona wouldn't be affected if he a got a hatrick against Pinxton the week before.

Doyles chances are no stronger this week than last.

You just argue for arguments sake..n before you say, it's Spireite "Debate", debates are usually constructive.. i havent seen one constructive post from you for years.

[Zeus]

Search and Destroy, on 20 September 2014 - 08:39 AM, said:

And making a pretty poor attempt, my last comment on the matter A PREVIOUS TWO HATRICKS DO NOT SHORTEN THE ODDS OR INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A THIRD ONE JUST LIKE NOT SCORING TODAY WILL NOT DECREASE HIS CHANCES OF SCORING NEXT WEEK

You're wrong.

[Search & Destroy]

Zeus, on 20 September 2014 - 08:48 AM, said:

You're wrong.

Ok, Doyles odds of a hatrick against Scunthorpe were about 33/1-40/1, he had never ever scored a hatrick in English or Scottish football previously.

He's now scored 2 successive hatricks, his odds today are around 33/1-40/1, the same, his previous hatricks make no difference.

But whatever.

[Zeus]

Search and Destroy, on 20 September 2014 - 09:13 AM, said:

Ok, Doyles odds of a hatrick against Scunthorpe were about 33/1-40/1, he had never ever scored a hatrick in English or Scottish football previously.

He's now scored 2 successive hatricks, his odds today are around 33/1-40/1, the same, his previous hatricks make no difference.

But whatever.

I see you reneged on your "last comment" promise.

1) People are sentimental, Doyle has been backed into lower odds with some bookies offering 22/1 this weekend, whether or not he's actually more likely...

2) He is more likely, Messi is 9/1 this weekend, Ronaldo is 14/1, it makes sense as they score hattricks more often. Doyle now has a precedent, hence his odds are lower.

2) Is that actually true about the odds v Scunthorpe or are you making it up to back up your point?

[Sammy Spireite]

Search and Destroy, on 20 September 2014 - 09:13 AM, said:

Ok, Doyles odds of a hatrick against Scunthorpe were about 33/1-40/1, he had never ever scored a hatrick in English or Scottish football previously.

He's now scored 2 successive hatricks, his odds today are around 33/1-40/1, the same, his previous hatricks make no difference.

But whatever.

You realise with betting markets that odds and chance are two differing things, don't you??

If they bookies were to take a huge amount of bets on him getting a hat trick, then his odds would tumble, yet his chances of still getting one would still be the same.

I think I understand the point you were originally trying to make, but you were wrong.

[calvin plummers socks]

Can't believe I'm saying this but Search and Destroy is the only one talking sense here-he's exactly right

[Bankrobber]

50/1 on Doyle hat trick on Skybet

[Westbars Spireite]

calvin plummers socks, on 20 September 2014 - 09:58 AM, said:

Can't believe I'm saying this but Search and Destroy is the only one talking sense here-he's exactly right

No he's not. It's not science.

[firedodger]

Search and Destroy, on 20 September 2014 - 09:13 AM, said:

Ok, Doyles odds of a hatrick against Scunthorpe were about 33/1-40/1, he had never ever scored a hatrick in English or Scottish football previously.

He's now scored 2 successive hatricks, his odds today are around 33/1-40/1, the same, his previous hatricks make no difference.

But whatever.

To expand it a little bit, I would argue the odds / chances of him scoring a hattrick today should be greater after the last two games, it's rare that players score back to back hattricks in two games, but in three? That's almost unheard of!
In the interests of balance, what are the odds on him not scoring? Or not scoring a hattrick?
Shop for more value people.

[Wooden Spoon]

Zeus, on 20 September 2014 - 08:11 AM, said:

S&D is talking tosh, I was extrapolating his viewpoint.

is he?

Many factors influence these odds - Who the opposition is for example. He is more likely to score a hat trick in the FA cup 1st round at home against Spennymore than a 3rd round tie away at Arsenal.

Home or away would have an influence on the odds.

Form would have an influence.

Injuries to other players/recovering from would decrease/increase the chances.

I very much doubt however that scoring 2 hat tricks in previous games would make much difference to the bookies though.




Spin it around. If a player scores a hat trick on Saturday, how does that increase the chances of him doing it again in the next game?

[Zeus]

firedodger, on 20 September 2014 - 10:59 AM, said:

To expand it a little bit, I would argue the odds / chances of him scoring a hattrick today should be greater after the last two games, it's rare that players score back to back hattricks in two games, but in three? That's almost unheard of!
In the interests of balance, what are the odds on him not scoring? Or not scoring a hattrick?
Shop for more value people.

That's a statistical fallacy S&D is arguing against. You wouldn't have been betting on him to score 3 consecutive hattricks, you'd have been betting on him to score 1 hattrick given he's already got 2.

a kick in the balls, on 20 September 2014 - 02:32 PM, said:

is he?

Many factors influence these odds - Who the opposition is for example. He is more likely to score a hat trick in the FA cup 1st round at home against Spennymore than a 3rd round tie away at Arsenal.

Home or away would have an influence on the odds.

Form would have an influence.

Injuries to other players/recovering from would decrease/increase the chances.

I very much doubt however that scoring 2 hat tricks in previous games would make much difference to the bookies though.




Spin it around. If a player scores a hat trick on Saturday, how does that increase the chances of him doing it again in the next game?

I'm not arguing against any of that.


You said so yourself, form has an influence. Allow me to reduce the case to one goal: a forward player is more likely to score a goal after scoring in the previous week.

[Bankrobber]

Well, ifs buts and maybes now but he converted one of two great chances today and had a decent half chance with the first half lob.

What an unforeseen positive his form is turning out to be.

[KevoBMMD]

It really Pains me to say this but in all the time I've been on here, I agree with S&D ........


God That Was Hard..............

It really Pains me to say this but in all the time I've been on here, I agree with S&D ........


God That Was Hard..............

This post has been edited by KevoBMMD: 20 September 2014 - 06:23 PM